![]() ![]() Analysts’ forecasts of deficit for 2023-2025 are 2.7% of GDP, 1.8% of GDP and 1.0% of GDP respectively. Consolidated budget balance: No significant changes.Accordingly, by the end of the forecast horizon real wages will be by 9.3% higher than in 2021. Calculations based on analysts’ forecasts of nominal wages and average CPI suggest that real wages will increase by 4.2% in 2023, by 2.3% in 2024 and by 1.9% in 2025. Expectations for growth in 2025 are almost unchanged (+6.1%). over the entire horizon and expect the unemployment to be in the 3.4–3.5% range. Unemployment rate: Analysts lowered the forecasts by 0.2–0.3 p.p.The estimate of the long-term GDP growth rate is unchanged at 1.5%. According to analysts, the change in GDP in 2025 to 2021 will be +2.3% (+1.6% in the June survey). The forecasts for 2024-2025 are in line with the June survey. The median estimate for a neutral key rate is unchanged at 6.0% per annum. Key rate: Analysts raised the forecast for key rate path over the entire forecast horizon by 0.4–0.7 p.p.Analysts expect inflation to be on the target of the Bank of Russia in 2025. The ranges for unemployment rate, exchange rate, exports, oil price are widened by the end of the forecast period. The ranges of analysts’ forecasts for most indicators for the next three years (see shaded areas in the charts) for GDP, exports and imports have narrowed. ** The results are the median forecasts based on survey participants’ responses on the nominal wages and average for the year CPI.Ĭalculation methodology: The survey results are the median of the 25 forecasts of economists from various organizations taking part in the survey. ![]() * In parentheses are the results of the June 2023 survey. ![]()
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